若し本当にモルスタを救いたいのなら株主を見殺しにするのではなく株主と力を合わせて死地を切り抜ける方法を考えるべきだ

三菱ＵＦＪとモルガン・スタンレー（ＭＳ）の交渉は未だ続いています。

ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナルの書き方から判断すると、米国財務省は「若し三菱ＵＦＪが当初の条件通りにモルスタを助けてくれるなら、今後追加でモルスタに公的資金注入が必要になった場合でも三菱ＵＦＪの株主権がダイリューション（希釈化）されないように特別の配慮をする」意図があることを表明したようです。

これはモルスタの株価にとってもちろん良いニュースですけど、今後救済が必要になると思われる銀行の株価全てにとって重要な意味を持ちます。

なぜならこれまでの救済は「銀行そのものは倒産させないけど、既存株主は全滅してもしょうがない」という考えが根底に流れていたからです。

そこには「どうせ株主の多くは現経営陣自身か、そのシンパにきまっている。奴らは資本主義の豚畜生（Capitalist pig）だから見せしめに血祭りにあげられるべきだ。どんなことがあっても国民の税金は最も有利な値段で注入されるべきである」という短絡的な考えがチラチラ見え隠れしています。

でもリーマン・ブラザーズやファニー・メイなどの株を持っていた投資家の全てが「豚畜生」でないのは当然で、年金ファンドなどの保守的で公共性の高い株主だって酷い目に遭ったわけです。

米国政府や英国政府やヨーロッパの政府に無尽蔵の資金があれば話は別ですけど、資金に限りがあるのであれば、今既に存在する株主ベースにもちゃんと配慮した公的資金の注入方法を考えないとマーケットを救う心算で繰り出した公的資金注入という大砲がかえって大量殺戮兵器と化してしまい、あっという間に米国や欧州の銀行株の株価を限りなくゼロに押し下げてしまう効果を発揮しないとも限りません。

もちろん、ショート筋はこの「既存株主よりも納税者の立場に立った資金注入」という政治的なプレッシャーを上手く利用して自信満々に銀行株に空を振っているわけで、政府は一番儲けさせなくても良い連中をはからずも儲けさせている結果に終わっているのです。

誰かがこの狂気のギロチン・ゲームを止めなければいけません。

その意味では今回の財務省の「三菱ＵＦＪに配慮する」発言は、はじめて聞いた理性の声だと感じました。

（追記：ジョン・マックからモルスタ社員に宛てた社内メールを添付しておきます。）

To: All Employees
From: John Mack
I am pleased to let you know that we have officially closed today on our $9 billion equity investment from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) – a day earlier than expected. This investment further strengthens our capital position and gives us a powerful strategic partner going forward.
Under the terms of the deal, MUFG is investing $9 billion in exchange for a 21 percent interest in Morgan Stanley, as agreed in September. MUFG is acquiring $7.8 billion of perpetual non-cumulative convertible preferred stock with a 10 percent dividend and a conversion price of $25.25 per share, as well as $1.2 billion of perpetual non-cumulative non-convertible preferred stock with a 10 percent dividend. This investment is a win-win for both companies, and we are honored to welcome MUFG as a long-term investor and strategic partner.
MUFG and Morgan Stanley are working toward numerous areas of collaboration, including pursuing a lending relationship, and we are confident that the combination of these two world-class institutions creates a powerful global alliance in the current challenging market environment. Indeed, this strategic partnership will bring together Morgan Stanley’s global investment banking and asset management expertise with MUFG’s vast resources and significant expertise in retail banking to better serve clients worldwide.
This alliance also is a key step in Morgan Stanley’s transition under our new bank holding company status. MUFG is the world’s second largest commercial bank with $1.1 trillion in assets, and their support and insights will boost our efforts to grow our deposit base and expand our retail business – leveraging the many advantages Morgan Stanley currently has. As you know, we already have two deposit taking institutions with total deposits of $36 billion – and the Firm will be looking to grow those deposits over time. We also have 8,500 financial advisors and almost 500 branches, which the Firm can use to expand the retail banking products and services we offer our clients. We also will be looking at acquisitions that might make sense for the Firm and help us ramp up our deposit base.
Today’s investment further bolsters Morgan Stanley’s strong capital position – and boosts our Tier 1 Capital Ratio to more than 15.5 percent, on a pro-forma basis as of August 31. This is more than double the 6 percent required by the Federal Reserve to be treated as well-capitalized and is one of the highest Tier 1 Capital Ratios among bank holding company peers. This investment also will reduce Morgan Stanley’s leverage ratio to under 20x and its adjusted leverage ratio to just over 10x, on a pro-forma basis at August 31. The fact is that our capital and liquidity positions remain strong, as we made clear in our 10Q filing on Thursday and as numerous financial analysts made clear in their reports last week.
These are truly unprecedented times, and I know the last few weeks have been difficult for all of you. Tough times like this test people, and the people of Morgan Stanley have risen to the challenge. You have continued to serve our clients and build our business, and I am incredibly proud of how the Firm has responded to these challenging markets. MUFG’s investment is a powerful endorsement of the tremendous value in the Morgan Stanley franchise, but the caliber and commitment of our people give me even greater confidence about the future of this Firm. Thank you all for your continued hard work, focus and dedication.